4.9 The Clash of Civilizations

There can be no true friends without true enemies. Unless we hate what we are not, we cannot love what we are.

The central theme of this book is that culture and cultural identities, which at the broadest level are civilization identities, are shaping the patterns of cohesion, disintegration, and conflict in the post-Cold War world.

For the first time in history, global politics is both multipolar and multicivilizational: modernization is distinct from Westernization and is producing neither a universal civilization in any meaningful sense nor the Westernization of non-Western societies. (世界正从单极文明走向多极文明并存)

The balance of power among civilizations is shifting: the West is declining in relative influence; Asian civilizations are expanding their economic, military, and political strength; Islam is exploding demographically with destabilizing consequences for Muslim countries and their neighbors, and non-Western civilizations generally are reaffirming the value of their own cultures. (各个文明之间的均势状态发生变化)

A civilization-based world order emerging: societies sharing cultural affinities cooperate with each other; efforts to shift societies from one civilization to another are unsuccessful, and countries group themselves around the lead or core states of their civilization. (文明的冲突带来国际秩序的改变)

The West’s universalist pretensions increasingly bring it into conflict with other civilizations, most seriously with Islam and China; at the local level fault line wars, largely between Muslims and non-Muslims, generate “kin-country rallying.” the threat of broader escalation, and hence efforts by core states to halt these wars. (西方“普世文明”与其他文明之间的冲突)

The survival of the West depends on Americans reaffirming their Western identity and Westerners accepting their civilization as unique not universal and uniting to renew and preserve it against challenges from non-Western societies. Avoidance of a global war of civilizations depends on world leaders accepting and cooperating to maintain the multicivilizational character of global politics. (合作避免全球文明战争，建立多级文明的全球政治)

什么是文明：

文明发展的演进

贵族战争——民族国家的冲突——意识形态之争（法西斯 [Fascism] 和反法西斯之争 [anti-fascism] ）——冷战后进入文明冲突新阶段。作者认为20世纪战争的本质不是国家与国家的斗争，而是意识形态的冲突。

文明是文化的最大公约数

欧美文化与中国文化缺乏一个最大公约数，不能算作同一种文明。作者认为，目前世界上可能发生冲突、有国际影响力的文明包括：

• 西方文明
• 中国儒家文明
• 日本文明
• 伊斯兰文明
• 印度文明
• 东正文明
• 拉丁美洲文明
• 非洲文明

以上这些文明已什么样的形态存在？

有的国家只有一种文明，如日本。有的文明分散在几个国家或地区，比如中国儒家文明。还有些文明散落在各地，盘根错杂于其他文明中，比如中东既有外来的西方文明，同时又是伊斯兰文明的大本营。再如，欧洲法国等地形成多民族、多文明混居的形态——这类文明的交错区被称为“文明的断层线”。在断层线地区，文明的冲突将很活跃。

文明之间冲突的内在逻辑

文明之间为何会产生冲突？文明之间的冲突与民族之间、国家之间、政治之间、意识形态之间相比，为何有过之无不及？

文明是比较本质、很难改变的差异。比如，国籍可以改变，但是文化标签很难改变 如今由于经济联系越来越多，人们在交往中意识到彼此的文明不同，强化了各自的身份认同。

西方和非西方文明

• “现代化”：西方文明的关键词
• 血腥的殖民化：西方制度的传播
• 带来繁荣：剥削与不平等
• 西方文明演进的三部曲：武力——制度——意识形态的传播
• 西方文明不能攻破的是：宗教

无法洗净的底色——中国儒家文化

西方文明在最近几十年中走向衰弱：西方掌握的土地和人口日渐下降，政治经济军事实力都大不如前。中国、俄罗斯等国家已经崛起，非西方文明与西方文明的冲突开始了。

文明断层线

• 文明内部整合的关键：有无核心国家。
• 冲突的主要来源：不同文明的断层线。

文明冲突论

作者预言的很多冲突都已经发生：伊斯兰文明和西方文明的矛盾，中国文明和日本文明的冲突，东正文明和西方文明的交锋